Saturday 13 September 2014

ZANU PF FACTIONALISM A THREAT TO NATIONAL STABILITY





 The ongoing political instability in the revolutionary party ZANU PF is a cause for concern; apart from being an interesting piece of story that is being closely followed by others and blindly followed by many.

 Misheck Gondo

With the party congress coming in December, a lot of changes and shocks are being expected, the party‘s total disintegration is imminent; if Mugabe fails to map up holistic strategies to curb factional fights. 

As evidenced by the utterances by Grace Marufu Mugabe on her endorsement meeting in Mazowe recently, she told the delegates that she was aware of the plans to unseat Mugabe by some thugs within the power matrixes of ZANU PF.

It seems at every structure the revolutionary party is now fragmented; with the conflicts now even found at student movements level as they ushered conflicting statements and positions. 

The President and his Vice President are being reported to have lost faith with each other, following indications that Amai Mujuru is set to take over power at the upcoming congress. This development might have caused the drawn of strategies such as roping in of Amai Mugabe to be at the helm of the Women Assembly; as a measure to balance power. 

There are indications that Cde Mugabe will dissolve several Provincial Party structures and formulate new ones before the much awaited congress. However, such move is likely going to be heavily challenged by the Mujuru faction that is being reported to have the majority in terms of support at party structure level.
The other notable thing in this debate is how Mugabe‘s power is being undermined by people such as his Vice President and the Secretary of State Dydimus Mutasa, several analysts are citing that Mugabe is no longer as powerful as he was a decade ago; this however follows that his rivals now command a sizable support at every level which can be a justifiable road to unseat him.

 The rise of Mujuru camp is being alleged to have a reasonable support even at intelligence level, as well as at security sector level in general.

It is very sad to predict that; if this internal fight is not solved amicably, it will trigger internal fights that have potential of generating into a civil war with a larger predicted percentage of growing into a full flagged war.
The Army is likely going to be divided according to factional lines, same with the Police and the Central Intelligence Organisation, not forgetting division along ZAPU and ZANU line; a coalition which is now premised on a shake ground.

The likely scenario after ZANU PF split is that the army will take over in form of coup d’état; followed by a period of civilian victimization in form of curfew. There will be also arrests of those believed to have being challenging the status quo.

The ZANU PF squabbles are a threat to national stability; we hope our liberators will save our country from the other decades of political turmoil; we hope that the President will become open on the succession issue, to avoid a potential war that is peeping on the borders of Zimbabwe.

The developments in ZANU PF however must also be treated with positivity as it might be an advent of a new political dispensation which will be epitomized by democracy and the rule of law.

Let’s wait and see

Misheck Gondo is a Political Analyst; International Relations Expert