The ongoing political instability
in the revolutionary party ZANU PF is a cause for concern; apart from being an
interesting piece of story that is being closely followed by others and blindly
followed by many.
Misheck Gondo
With the party congress
coming in December, a lot of changes and shocks are being expected, the party‘s
total disintegration is imminent; if Mugabe fails to map up holistic strategies
to curb factional fights.
As evidenced by the
utterances by Grace Marufu Mugabe on her endorsement meeting in Mazowe recently,
she told the delegates that she was aware of the plans to unseat Mugabe by some
thugs within the power matrixes of ZANU PF.
It seems at every
structure the revolutionary party is now fragmented; with the conflicts now
even found at student movements level as they ushered conflicting statements
and positions.
The President and his
Vice President are being reported to have lost faith with each other, following
indications that Amai Mujuru is set to take over power at the upcoming congress.
This development might have caused the drawn of strategies such as roping in of
Amai Mugabe to be at the helm of the Women Assembly; as a measure to balance
power.
There are indications
that Cde Mugabe will dissolve several Provincial Party structures and formulate
new ones before the much awaited congress. However, such move is likely going
to be heavily challenged by the Mujuru faction that is being reported to have
the majority in terms of support at party structure level.
The other notable thing
in this debate is how Mugabe‘s power is being undermined by people such as his Vice
President and the Secretary of State Dydimus Mutasa, several analysts are
citing that Mugabe is no longer as powerful as he was a decade ago; this however
follows that his rivals now command a sizable support at every level which can
be a justifiable road to unseat him.
The rise of Mujuru camp is being alleged to
have a reasonable support even at intelligence level, as well as at security
sector level in general.
It is very sad to
predict that; if this internal fight is not solved amicably, it will trigger internal
fights that have potential of generating into a civil war with a larger
predicted percentage of growing into a full flagged war.
The Army is likely
going to be divided according to factional lines, same with the Police and the
Central Intelligence Organisation, not forgetting division along ZAPU and ZANU
line; a coalition which is now premised on a shake ground.
The likely scenario
after ZANU PF split is that the army will take over in form of coup d’état;
followed by a period of civilian victimization in form of curfew. There will be
also arrests of those believed to have being challenging the status quo.
The ZANU PF squabbles
are a threat to national stability; we hope our liberators will save our
country from the other decades of political turmoil; we hope that the President
will become open on the succession issue, to avoid a potential war that is
peeping on the borders of Zimbabwe.
The developments in
ZANU PF however must also be treated with positivity as it might be an advent
of a new political dispensation which will be epitomized by democracy and the
rule of law.
Let’s wait and see
Misheck Gondo is a
Political Analyst; International Relations Expert